How do you decide whether a rate-cut expectation is already in a currency pair's price?

When a central bank starts signaling a cutting cycle, I find the hardest part is not reading the signal but judging how much of it the market has already absorbed. The two-year yield differential between the two currencies is usually my first reference point, since the front end of the curve tends to carry most of the near-term policy path. From there I compare where that differential has moved against where the pair has moved over the same window. If the spread has compressed sharply but the pair has barely reacted, either the move is being offset by something else, such as risk sentiment or oil-driven dollar flows, or the market is treating the cut as less certain than the headlines suggest. Session matters here too: a reaction during thin Asian liquidity can look very different from the same data landing during the London-New York overlap. I'm curious how others handle this in practice. Do you anchor on yield differentials, on forward points, or on positioning data, and which of these has told you the most about what is already priced in?