When gold and oil move the same way on a given day, how do you tell whether a shared macro driver is responsible?

Gold and oil both respond to the dollar, real yields and risk sentiment, so they sometimes rise together for reasons that have nothing to do with each other. The trouble is that a same-day move can be produced by a scheduled report, a geopolitical headline, or simply positioning ahead of a data release, and the price alone rarely says which. One approach I find useful is to start with the calendar. Check whether the day contained an inventory release, an OPEC+ communication, a real yield move, or a central bank speech, then look at the timing of the moves relative to those events. If gold moved before oil, or oil moved on the headline and then faded, that tells you something about where the pressure came from. I'm also cautious about treating a one-day co-movement as evidence of a stable relationship. Over longer windows the link can look quite different, and the sign can flip depending on what the market is focused on. How do you separate a shared macro driver from two unrelated events that happened to land on the same day?