When a consumer price release comes out, the headline monthly change tends to drive the first reaction in currency pairs. Before treating that move as the story, I find it useful to look at the prior month's revised figure and the core measure, since a softer or firmer revision can reverse the implied direction of policy expectations.
The sequence I work through is roughly this: note which release and reference period the headline refers to, check whether the prior month was revised and by how much, then compare headline against core and services components. Each step tests whether the initial read still holds once the detail is in.
I am less sure how much weight the market gives revisions in practice, and it likely varies by regime and by how central banks have signalled their reaction function. Where a headline and its revision point in opposite directions, which one do you let anchor your initial read of a currency pair, and what would make you change that view?
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How do you check whether a CPI revision changes the FX read before the first move settles?
Priya N.
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